24 March 2012

Statistically pregnant

Yesterday I had a REALLY high temp for me, at 37.0... It was followed yesterday evening by a gush of bright red blood when I went to the loo. Obviously I'm hoping it was implantation spotting, but I thought that was pinky brown usually, and I didn't expect so much. I was unsure whether to mark it as start of next cycle! And of course 5dpo may well be too early. Although as I fell pregnant last time with only a 6 day luteal phase my experience suggests otherwise.

So I did what I always do in this situation. I mither on fertility friend. Having read the detailed interpretation of my chart over and over (too early to know... go figure), I head to the statistical part of the site, which is far more open to wild speculation.

Normally, I get about a 35% likelihood of pregnancy based on charts like mind, and only matching ovulation date. It rises to about 40% with good timing. If I try to match on pre or post ovulation temperatures, I usually don't see any results or the probabilities plummet.

Today when I checked I had a 50% probability of pregnancy based on ovulation date and timing. So I chanced matching post ovulation temps too, and the odds went up to 80%. What about charts that matched my pre o temps too? 100% pregnant charts. Only 2 charts in total, but that's good odds right?

So statistically I must be pregnant. Statistically, I am due in December...

Statistically, statistics are unreliable. Only a few more days til I can test.


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